Market Dashboard · Liquidity — Leading Indicators

U.S. Liquidity Leading Indicators

Leading HY Spread · Yield Curve Rate Differential · ISM PMI · SLOOS · Fed Rate Cut Expectations · DXY · Jobless Claims 2021 – 2027 Trend & 1-Year Forecast Source: FRED · ICE BofA · ISM · Fed SLOOS · CME FedWatch · US Treasury

As of March 31, 2026

⏱ Leading Lag Guide — Average Lead Time to Liquidity Change

① Credit Market — HY Spread · Yield Curve Rate Differential (10Y−2Y)

HY spread widening = Credit crunch leading warning. Yield curve inversion (−) → 12–18months later liquidity contraction. Current spread 3.28% near historical low. Rate Differential +0.45%pinversion fully resolved.

Actual

Forecast (2026.03→)

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② ISM New Orders vs Net Liquidity

PMI New orders staying above 50 → rising corporate investment and loan demand → leading liquidity expansion. Currently 55.8.

③ SLOOS Lending Standards Tightening Index (%)

Positive = banks tighten lending standards. Continued tightening → 6–12 months later, M2 growth slowing. Q1 2026 slight easing.

④ Fed Rate Cut Expectations (Cumulative YTD)

CME FedWatch implied cuts. Expectations surge = leading liquidity expansion.

⑤ Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar weakness = Global dollar liquidity expansion. Iran war pushed it back to 107 level in March 2026.

⑥ Initial Jobless Claims (4-Week Avg)

Claims surge → labor market deterioration → Fed easing pressure. Currently stable at ~220K.

📡 Current Signal Summary (As of March 31, 2026)

Data Sources: ICE BofA HY OAS(BAMLH0A0HYM2) · 10Y-2Y Rate Differential(T10Y2YM) · ISM Manufacturing New Orders · Fed SLOOS · CME FedWatch · DXY (ICE) · Initial Jobless Claims 4-week avg. Forecast values are based on market consensus estimates and do not constitute investment advice. © 2026 Norsvale.