Market Dashboard · Liquidity — Key Indicators
U.S. Liquidity Key Indicators
Liquidity Indicators Summary (Unit: $T)
2021Jan 2026 ~ Jan 2027 (Solid: Actual / Dashed: Forecast)
Actual
Forecast (2026.03 →)
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Net Liquidity (Net Liquidity)
Fed Assets − ON RRP − TGA
M2 Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%)
Pandemic surge → contraction → gradual recovery
📊 Forecast Rationale & Indicator Analysis
M2 Money Supply — $22.4T gradual expansion
Pandemic QE peaked at $21.7T in early 2022, contracted to $19T range in 2023 under tightening. Re-expanding since QT end (Dec 2025). Confirmed at $22.44T in Jan 2026. Fed's monthly $40B T-Bill QE purchases and fiscal spending resumption support gradual expansion.
Fed Assets — $6.65T stabilization
Peaked at $8.9T in 2022 → QT brought it to $6.5T by end of 2025. Edged up to $6.65T as of March 2026. After QT's official end, ample reserves for T-Bill QE purchases expected to keep it range-bound at $6.6–6.7T.
ON RRP — Effectively depleted ($0T)
$2.4T peak in 2023 → fully depleted by end of 2025. As T-Bill rates rose, MMFs shifted from ON RRP to market instruments. These funds moved into bank reserves, contributing to net liquidity improvement.
Bank Reserves — $3.3T stable
Reserves rise as ON RRP is depleted. FOMC's 'adequate reserves' target level of $3.2–3.5T maintained. Some outflow possible upon IORB rate cut, but short-term impact limited.
TGA — Volatility from debt ceiling negotiations
Upon debt ceiling resolution, TGA surges → absorbing market liquidity. Historical precedent: TGA surged after debt ceiling resolution in July 2025. Large fluctuations expected depending on 2026 renegotiation schedule and political dynamics.
Net Liquidity — $5.8T gradual expansion
Current Net Liquidity (Fed Assets $6.65T − ON RRP ~0 − TGA $0.84T) = approx. $5.81T. QT end + rate cut expectations → gradual rise toward $6T by early 2027 expected.
⚠ Key Upside · Downside Risks
Upside Risks
• After debt ceiling resolution TGA Sharp decline → sudden liquidity release
• In case of sharp economic cooling Fed Emergency QE resumption
• Iran war escalation → oil price surge → fiscal stimulus
• After debt ceiling resolution TGA Sharp decline → sudden liquidity release
• In case of sharp economic cooling Fed Emergency QE resumption
• Iran war escalation → oil price surge → fiscal stimulus
Downside Risk
• TGA Surge → sharp decline in reserves → credit crunch
• Persistent tariff inflation → delayed rate cuts
• Continued dollar strength → capital outflows
• TGA Surge → sharp decline in reserves → credit crunch
• Persistent tariff inflation → delayed rate cuts
• Continued dollar strength → capital outflows
Data Sources & Disclaimer:
Federal Reserve H.4.1 · H.6 · FRED (WALCL, M2SL, RRPONTSYD, WRESBAL, WTREGEN). Forecast values are Goldman Sachs · CBO · FOMC SEP Based on median estimates and does not constitute investment advice. © 2026 Norsvale.