Market Dashboard · Macro Indicators

U.S. Macro Indicators

Macro Inflation · Unemployment Rate · Policy Rate 2021 – 2027 Trend & 1-Year Forecast Source: BLS · BEA · Federal Reserve · Univ. of Michigan · FOMC SEP Mar 2026 · Goldman Sachs · CBO

As of March 31, 2026

U.S. Inflation · Unemployment Rate · Policy Rate Trend & 1-Year Forecast (2021–2027)

Source: BLS · BEA · Federal Reserve · Univ. of Michigan · FOMC SEP Mar 2026 · Goldman Sachs · CBO | As of: March 31, 2026 | © norsvale.com

Actual Forecast (2026.05~2027.03) ※ Click items to show/hide

Solid=Core | Dashed=Headline | Right Axis=Unemployment·Policy Rate(0~7%) © norsvale.com

Forecast Rationale

Policy Rate 3.625% → 3.375% (1 Cut Expected)

Mar 18, 2026 FOMC unanimous hold (3.50~3.75%). Dot plot median year-end 3.4% maintained. 7 members prefer hold, 7 expect one cut. Iran war risk and tariff inflation make additional cut timing uncertain. New Chair policy direction after Powell term end in late May is the key variable.

Core PCE 3.1% → Expected to Converge to 2.3~2.7%

Jan 2026 Core PCE 3.1% (YoY, BEA release) exceeded expectations. FOMC March SEP revised 2026 Core PCE to 2.7%. Tariffs and Iran oil price surge create upward inflation pressure in H1. When one-off tariff effect fades in H2, convergence to 2.4~2.6% expected.

Inflation Expectations 3.8% — Spike Expected to Ease

March final at 3.8%, surging from February (3.4%). Iran crisis-driven oil spike and tariff concerns worsen sentiment. 5-year inflation expectations also at 3.2%, above soft landing target. Expected to gradually ease as shocks resolve in H2.

Unemployment Rate 4.4% — Expected to Hold at 4.4~4.5%

Feb 2026 4.4% (BLS confirmed). Slight rebound from Jan 4.3%. Non-farm payrolls -92,000 (healthcare strike, federal reductions). Federal employment -327,000 since Jan 2025. Both CBO and FOMC SEP forecast year-end at 4.4%. Part-time shift and rising layoffs keep U-6 index (7.9%) elevated.

Wage Growth 3.8% → Gradual Decline to 3.4~3.5%

Feb 2026 AHE +3.8% (YoY, BLS). Weekly average wages +4.1%. Exceeding inflation (2.4%), real wages remain positive at +1.4~1.7%. Service sector wage rigidity persists despite labor market cooling.

⚠ Key Risks (Iran War · Tariffs · Fed Leadership)

Upside Risk: Iran war escalation → oil price surge (Brent $90+), additional tariff hikes, new Fed Chair early shift to easing
Downside Risk: Early end to Iran crisis → oil price drop, accelerating federal job cuts cooling economy, global demand contraction

Data Sources: BLS · BEA · Federal Reserve · Univ. of Michigan · FOMC SEP 2026.03 · Goldman Sachs · CBO | As of: March 31, 2026 | Note: This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Forecast figures are based on estimates from various sources and may differ from actual results.